SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours SC Paderborn 07 (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SC Paderborn 07 face 1. FC Magdeburg.

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Analysis

1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

SC Paderborn 07 have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in SC Paderborn 07's favour (2.10 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with 1. FC Magdeburg managing 0 and 4 draws.

Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended SC Paderborn 07 1–0 1. FC Magdeburg — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

The head-to-head data gives SC Paderborn 07 an edge — 3 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 66% and 1. FC Magdeburg 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | 1. FC Magdeburg 64%). Note also that 1. FC Magdeburg surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while SC Paderborn 07 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.13 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.203 / defence 1.024 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.346 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.307. 1. FC Magdeburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.346, which lifts their away xG to 1.80. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 62 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 62.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 45% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.21 | Draw 4.47 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.09. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (2.13 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 90% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% (last 10 away games).

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