Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hannover 96 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hannover 96 stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hannover 96 have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
SC Paderborn 07's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Hannover 96) versus 2.10 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
SC Paderborn 07 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Hannover 96.
The 9 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Hannover 96 2–0 SC Paderborn 07 — a Hannover 96 win.
The H2H data backs the away side. SC Paderborn 07 have won 5 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hannover 96 57% and SC Paderborn 07 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 56% | SC Paderborn 07 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hannover 96 surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while SC Paderborn 07 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.01 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.854 / defence 0.882 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.045 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.281. SC Paderborn 07 bring a tight defence (rating 0.755, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Hannover 96's projected output down. Data: built from Hannover 96's last 63 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 63.
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 29% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 38%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 3.40 | Draw 3.06 | SC Paderborn 07 2.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (SC Paderborn 07 5 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hannover 96 50% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 30 | Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 29% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Hannover 96 1.01 / SC Paderborn 07 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.854 / def 0.882 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.045 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.18
SC Paderborn 07 xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 FAQs
What time does Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hannover 96 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 30) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 29% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (0.85) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hannover 96's last 63 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
29%
3.40
33%
3.06
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.19
1.18
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.18 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96 come into this having played 63 games, going 28W 20D 15L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.78 PPG from 63 outings (32W 16D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hannover 96 on 1.65 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hannover 96's home form reads 15W 10D 6L across their last 31 home games, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.71 points per game from their last 31 away games (14W 11D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.70 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 67%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
Hannover 96 (Home) vs SC Paderborn 07 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hannover 96
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 Form FAQs
What form are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 28W 20D 15L in their last 63 games (1.65 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 32W 16D 15L in their last 63 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.77 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won SC Paderborn 07 3-0 Hannover 96.
Hannover 96's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hannover 96
3
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hannover 96 have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 55%, SC Paderborn 07 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hannover 96) and 52% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Hannover 96's games and 58% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hannover 96's recent games and 52% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 61% of SC Paderborn 07's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 30, as Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.01 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.18 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.04 / defence 0.76, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 29% | Draw 33% | SC Paderborn 07 38%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 56%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.65 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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