Preußen Münster 0-0 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Ulm 1846 at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Preußen Münster welcome SSV Ulm 1846 to Preußen-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preußen Münster stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preußen Münster's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 4L across 8 games at Preußen-Stadion this term (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Ulm 1846's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Preußen Münster 1.00 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Preußen Münster trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
SSV Ulm 1846 trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 62% and SSV Ulm 1846 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 50% | SSV Ulm 1846 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.15 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.725 / defence 0.947 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.787 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.566. Preußen Münster's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Preußen Münster games / 16 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 33% | SSV Ulm 1846 34%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | SSV Ulm 1846 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Ulm 1846 are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Ulm 1846 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Preußen Münster 50% | SSV Ulm 1846 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Preußen-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 33% | SSV Ulm 1846 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Preußen Münster 1.15 / SSV Ulm 1846 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.725 / def 0.947 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.787 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.566 • Poisson stance: SSV Ulm 1846 (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.17
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Preußen-Stadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Preußen Münster 0 - 0 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Preußen-Stadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 33% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SSV Ulm 1846 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Preußen Münster's attack at 0.72x the league average against SSV Ulm 1846's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Ulm 1846's attack versus Preußen Münster's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Ulm 1846 Win
33%
3.04
33%
2.99
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.32
1.17
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.17 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Preußen Münster have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 3W 6D 7L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Ulm 1846's form line: 2W 7D 7L from 16 games, 0.81 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preußen Münster on 0.94 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Preußen Münster have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 1W 4D 3L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 62%.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 2W 7D 7L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or SSV Ulm 1846 away?
SSV Ulm 1846's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 0.75 PPG; SSV Ulm 1846 away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Preußen Münster
2
Draws
0
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 0, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 2-2 Preußen Münster.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Preußen Münster see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preußen Münster 50%, SSV Ulm 1846 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Preußen Münster) and 38% (SSV Ulm 1846).
On the defensive side: Preußen Münster have failed to score in 38% of games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play SSV Ulm 1846?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Preußen Münster's recent matches and 50% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preußen Münster vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 38% of SSV Ulm 1846's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Preußen Münster's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preußen Münster and SSV Ulm 1846 finished level at 0-0 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.15 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.17 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preußen Münster fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SSV Ulm 1846 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.72 / defence 0.95 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 33% | Draw 33% | SSV Ulm 1846 34%, with SSV Ulm 1846 to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 50%, SSV Ulm 1846 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 0.94 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.