Preußen Münster 1-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Preußen-Stadion plays host to Preußen Münster versus Hamburger SV in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Preußen Münster have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Preußen Münster, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Preußen Münster have posted 2W 4D 4L at Preußen-Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Hamburger SV (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Preußen Münster, 1 for Hamburger SV and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–4 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Preußen Münster half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 65%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 65% and Hamburger SV 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Preußen Münster 55% | Hamburger SV 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.18 xG and Hamburger SV 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.736 / defence 0.875 | Hamburger SV attack 1.117 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.540. Preußen Münster's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Preußen Münster games / 54 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 29% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 44%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Hamburger SV 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Preußen Münster 50% | Hamburger SV 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Preußen-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 29% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Preußen Münster 1.18 / Hamburger SV 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.736 / def 0.875 | Hamburger SV attack 1.117 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Hamburger SV xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Preußen-Stadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV?
Preußen Münster 1 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Preußen-Stadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV part of?
Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 29% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Preußen Münster and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): Preußen Münster 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 1W.
What form are Preußen Münster and Hamburger SV in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Preußen Münster's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.12x) against Preußen Münster's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
29%
3.45
27%
3.68
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.69
1.51
Hamburger SV xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
15.55
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.51 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Preußen Münster come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 8D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Preußen Münster is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (9W 8D 3L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Preußen Münster — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Preußen Münster's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.56 points per game from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.25 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 75%.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 4W 8D 8L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 9W 8D 3L in their last 20 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.00 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Preußen Münster
0
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Preußen Münster 1-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preußen Münster see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Preußen Münster, 78% for Hamburger SV — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Preußen Münster and 78% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preußen Münster have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Preußen Münster's games and 78% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preußen Münster vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Preußen Münster's matches and 78% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Preußen Münster and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Preußen Münster 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Preußen Münster 1-2 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.18 xG and Hamburger SV 1.51 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.74 / defence 0.88 against Hamburger SV attack 1.12 / defence 1.05, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 29% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 44%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 55%, Hamburger SV 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.