SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours 1. FC Nürnberg (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SSV Jahn Regensburg face 1. FC Nürnberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 30 March 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Nürnberg are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to 1. FC Nürnberg, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 3–8 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 29% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 46% | 1. FC Nürnberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.97 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.633 / defence 0.867 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.032 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.267. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 60 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 29% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Mar 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 29% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.97 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.633 / def 0.867 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.032 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
1. FC Nürnberg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 30 March 2025 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 29% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (5 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (0.63) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (1.03x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
29%
3.46
34%
2.96
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.10
1.13
1. FC Nürnberg xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.13 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 28 games, going 5W 5D 18L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.71 PPG overall — SSV Jahn Regensburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.07 points per game from 14 outings (4W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Nürnberg's season.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.79 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 5W 5D 18L in their last 28 games (0.71 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 13W 5D 10L in their last 28 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.14 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.07 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 8-3 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 21%, 1. FC Nürnberg 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 64% (1. FC Nürnberg).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 71% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 64% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SSV Jahn Regensburg defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.97 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.63 / defence 0.87 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 29% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SSV Jahn Regensburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 46%, 1. FC Nürnberg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.