Holstein Kiel 0-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to Holstein-Stadion to face Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Holstein-Stadion, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hertha BSC are 1.70 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Holstein Kiel register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Hertha BSC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Holstein Kiel, 2 for Hertha BSC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Holstein Kiel winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Holstein Kiel — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 61% versus Hertha BSC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 51% | Hertha BSC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.62 xG and Hertha BSC 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.971 / defence 1.035 | Hertha BSC attack 1.377 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.380. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Holstein Kiel games / 41 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 32% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 46%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | Hertha BSC 2.17. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 70% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 32% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.62 / Hertha BSC 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.971 / def 1.035 | Hertha BSC attack 1.377 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Hertha BSC xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC?
Holstein Kiel 0 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 32% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC?
Record (4 meetings): Holstein Kiel 1W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 2W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.38x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
32%
3.12
22%
4.61
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.58
1.97
Hertha BSC xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
14%
7.15
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
4%
22.28
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.97 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 12D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.76 PPG from 41 outings (21W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 6W 7D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 2.00 points per game from 20 outings (12W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.61 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
Hertha BSC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 11W 12D 18L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.25 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
2
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC?
From 5 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 1, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Holstein Kiel 0-0 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 60%, Hertha BSC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Holstein Kiel) and 65% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Holstein Kiel's games and 55% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 65% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Holstein Kiel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel and Hertha BSC finished level at 0-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.62 xG and Hertha BSC 1.97 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against Hertha BSC attack 1.38 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 32% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 46%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 51%, Hertha BSC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.