Hertha BSC 4-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hansa Rostock make the trip to Olympiastadion Berlin to face Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 12 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hertha BSC have posted 4W 5D 1L at Olympiastadion Berlin — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hansa Rostock have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hertha BSC lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 69% versus Hansa Rostock 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 66% | Hansa Rostock 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 2.12 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.359 / defence 1.279 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.621 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.359. Hertha BSC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 28 Hertha BSC games / 62 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 61% | Draw 21% | Hansa Rostock 18%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Hansa Rostock 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 90% | Hansa Rostock 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 61% | Draw 21% | Hansa Rostock 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Hertha BSC 2.12 / Hansa Rostock 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.359 / def 1.279 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.621 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Hansa Rostock xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock?
Hertha BSC 4 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 61% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hertha BSC and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Hansa Rostock?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 1 | Hansa Rostock 0W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Hansa Rostock in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 1.36x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.62x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
61%
1.64
21%
4.81
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.20
1.08
Hansa Rostock xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
2%
45.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.08 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 62 games, going 18W 16D 28L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.16 PPG from 62 outings (21W 9D 32L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.16 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hertha BSC's home form reads 11W 11D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (9W 6D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.95 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 18W 16D 28L in their last 62 games (1.13 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 21W 9D 32L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.42 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
0
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Hansa Rostock?
From 2 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Hansa Rostock have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when Hertha BSC 4-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Hansa Rostock?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 68%, Hansa Rostock 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hertha BSC) and 45% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 32% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hertha BSC vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 45% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Hansa Rostock 4-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 2.12 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.08 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.36 / defence 1.28 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.62 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 61% | Draw 21% | Hansa Rostock 18%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 66%, Hansa Rostock 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.13 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.