Hansa Rostock 3-1 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and SV Wehen meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's home record at Ostseestadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
SV Wehen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Wehen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 0.90 for SV Wehen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hansa Rostock lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with SV Wehen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 45% versus SV Wehen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 55% | SV Wehen 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.24 xG and SV Wehen 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.796 / defence 1.105 | SV Wehen attack 0.817 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.367. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Hansa Rostock games / 27 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 37% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 36%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | SV Wehen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hansa Rostock are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hansa Rostock 50% | SV Wehen 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 37% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.24 / SV Wehen 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.796 / def 1.105 | SV Wehen attack 0.817 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SV Wehen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen?
Hansa Rostock 3 - 1 SV Wehen.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 37% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Wehen?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 0 | SV Wehen 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Wehen in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. SV Wehen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against SV Wehen's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.82x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.68
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.48
1.23
SV Wehen xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.23 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 5D 15L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.28 for SV Wehen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 6W 2D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.24 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 29 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 9W 5D 15L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 10W 7D 12L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or SV Wehen away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.43 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
1
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, SV Wehen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2024, when Hansa Rostock 3-1 SV Wehen.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 57%, SV Wehen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Hansa Rostock) and 50% (SV Wehen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Wehen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play SV Wehen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 43% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 50% of SV Wehen's.
Do Hansa Rostock and SV Wehen tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hansa Rostock cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SV Wehen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SV Wehen 3-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.24 xG and SV Wehen 1.23 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hansa Rostock beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against SV Wehen attack 0.82 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 37% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 36%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 55%, SV Wehen 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
SV Wehen's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.10 PPG, SV Wehen 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. SV Wehen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.