Hansa Rostock 2-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 38%, yet in-form SV Elversberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Hansa Rostock host SV Elversberg at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Hansa Rostock at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Hansa Rostock are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SV Elversberg away from home: 4W 2D 3L from their last 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. SV Elversberg's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Hansa Rostock's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Hansa Rostock's games and 78% of SV Elversberg's (from Hansa Rostock's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 9 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Hansa Rostock have won 1, SV Elversberg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Hansa Rostock 2–1 SV Elversberg — a Hansa Rostock win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 50% versus SV Elversberg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 61% | SV Elversberg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.51 xG and SV Elversberg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.773 / defence 1.114 | SV Elversberg attack 0.973 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.388. Hansa Rostock's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.51. SV Elversberg's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hansa Rostock's projected output up. Data: built from Hansa Rostock's last 52 games and SV Elversberg's last 18.

Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 38% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 38%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.64 | Draw 4.13 | SV Elversberg 2.64. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Hansa Rostock 38% and SV Elversberg 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hansa Rostock's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 9 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hansa Rostock 60% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 78% (last 9 away games).

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