Hannover 96 2-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hannover 96 at 70% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Hansa Rostock travel to Heinz von Heiden-Arena to take on Hannover 96. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 February 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Heinz von Heiden-Arena this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hannover 96 are significantly better at Heinz von Heiden-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Hannover 96 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Hannover 96, 1 for Hansa Rostock and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Hannover 96 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hannover 96 in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 62% versus Hansa Rostock 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 62% | Hansa Rostock 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 2.27 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.212 / defence 0.841 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.708 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.386. Data: 53 Hannover 96 games / 53 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 70% | Draw 18% | Hansa Rostock 12%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Hansa Rostock 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Hannover 96 (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 50% | Hansa Rostock 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 70% | Draw 18% | Hansa Rostock 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 50% | xG Hannover 96 2.27 / Hansa Rostock 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.212 / def 0.841 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.708 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Hansa Rostock xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Hannover 96 2 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 70% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock?
Record (5 meetings): Hannover 96 3W | Draws 1 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hannover 96's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.59
12%
8.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
3.10
0.82
Hansa Rostock xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
8.29
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
10%
9.70
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
1%
80.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 0.82 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 19W 15D 19L from 53 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 28L across 53 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hannover 96 on 1.36 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 13W 6D 7L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.96 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 19W 15D 19L in their last 53 games (1.36 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 18W 7D 28L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.73 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hannover 96 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2021, when Hansa Rostock won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hannover 96
1
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Hannover 96 2-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 58%, Hansa Rostock 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Hannover 96) and 50% (Hansa Rostock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 35% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hannover 96's matches and 50% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out Hansa Rostock 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat Hansa Rostock 2-1 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 2.27 xG and Hansa Rostock 0.82 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.21 / defence 0.84 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.71 / defence 1.15, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 70% | Draw 18% | Hansa Rostock 12%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 62%, Hansa Rostock 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.36 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.