Erzgebirge AUE 1-0 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Erzgebirge AUE at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Erzgebirge AUE and FC Ingolstadt 04 meet at Erzgebirgsstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Erzgebirge AUE's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE at Erzgebirgsstadion this season: 0W 2D 3L from 5 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Ingolstadt 04 away from home this season: 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.40 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Erzgebirge AUE goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Ingolstadt 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 60% versus FC Ingolstadt 04 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 50% | FC Ingolstadt 04 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.40 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.741 / defence 1.241 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.673 / defence 1.740. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.437. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.740 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Erzgebirge AUE games / 10 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 38% | Draw 34% | FC Ingolstadt 04 28%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | FC Ingolstadt 04 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Erzgebirge AUE as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Erzgebirge AUE if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Erzgebirge AUE 60% | FC Ingolstadt 04 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 38% | Draw 34% | FC Ingolstadt 04 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.40 / FC Ingolstadt 04 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.741 / def 1.241 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.673 / def 1.740 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Erzgebirge AUE (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Erzgebirge AUE 1 - 0 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 38% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Erzgebirge AUE the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and FC Ingolstadt 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Erzgebirge AUE's attack at 0.74x the league average against FC Ingolstadt 04's defence at 1.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Ingolstadt 04's attack (0.67x) against Erzgebirge AUE's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzgebirge AUE Win
38%
2.65
34%
2.96
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.60
1.20
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
7%
14.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 1.20 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Erzgebirge AUE's recent record stands at 0W 4D 6L from 10 games, a 0.40 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Ingolstadt 04, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 7L across 10 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.40 PPG for Erzgebirge AUE against 0.50 for FC Ingolstadt 04. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Erzgebirge AUE have managed 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Ingolstadt 04's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.70 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Erzgebirge AUE have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 games (0.40 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or FC Ingolstadt 04 away?
FC Ingolstadt 04's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 0.40 PPG; FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Erzgebirge AUE
0
Draws
1
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 1, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 3-2 Erzgebirge AUE.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Erzgebirge AUE are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 60%, FC Ingolstadt 04 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Erzgebirge AUE and 80% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE have failed to score in 40% of games; FC Ingolstadt 04 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent matches and 40% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Erzgebirge AUE's matches and 80% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Erzgebirge AUE edge out FC Ingolstadt 04 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Erzgebirge AUE beat FC Ingolstadt 04 1-0 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.40 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.20 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Ingolstadt 04 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.74 / defence 1.24 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.67 / defence 1.74, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 38% | Draw 34% | FC Ingolstadt 04 28%, with Erzgebirge AUE to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 50%, FC Ingolstadt 04 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Erzgebirge AUE 0.40 PPG, FC Ingolstadt 04 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Erzgebirge AUE win broke the near-deadlock. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.