Eintracht Braunschweig 0-3 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Eintracht Braunschweig take on SV Elversberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Elversberg make the trip to Eintracht-Stadion to face Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Eintracht-Stadion, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eintracht-Stadion.
SV Elversberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SV Elversberg are 0.70 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Eintracht Braunschweig 1W, SV Elversberg 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 5–0 with Eintracht Braunschweig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
SV Elversberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 47% versus SV Elversberg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 55% | SV Elversberg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 xG and SV Elversberg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.877 / defence 0.767 | SV Elversberg attack 0.895 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.518. Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 49 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 36% | SV Elversberg 30%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | SV Elversberg 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 40% | SV Elversberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 36% | SV Elversberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 / SV Elversberg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.877 / def 0.767 | SV Elversberg attack 0.895 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.518 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.04
SV Elversberg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg?
Eintracht Braunschweig 0 - 3 SV Elversberg.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 35% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Elversberg?
Record (2 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 1W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Elversberg in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.88x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (0.90x) against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
36%
2.81
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.19
1.04
SV Elversberg xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.04 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Eintracht Braunschweig have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 14W 9D 26L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg's form line: 19W 11D 19L from 49 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Eintracht Braunschweig against 1.39 for SV Elversberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 8W 6D 10L from 24 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.55 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg in 61%.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 14W 9D 26L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 19W 11D 19L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SV Elversberg away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.50 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Braunschweig won 5-0 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
5
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SV Elversberg 3-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 46%, SV Elversberg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 58% (SV Elversberg).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play SV Elversberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 62% of SV Elversberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 58% of SV Elversberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 0-3 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 xG and SV Elversberg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.88 / defence 0.77 against SV Elversberg attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 35% | Draw 36% | SV Elversberg 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 55%, SV Elversberg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.04 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.