1. FC Nürnberg 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 August 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, SC Paderborn 07 are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 4 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 62% and SC Paderborn 07 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 68% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.21 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.874 / defence 1.084 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.022 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.215. Data: 37 1. FC Nürnberg games / 37 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 34% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 40%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | SC Paderborn 07 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 34% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.21 / SC Paderborn 07 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.874 / def 1.084 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.022 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SC Paderborn 07 xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 34% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (8 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 3W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 4W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.87x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.02x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.76
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.56
1.35
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.47
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.4 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.35 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 37 games, going 14W 6D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.59 PPG from 37 outings (16W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.59 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 8W 2D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.61 points per game from 18 outings (7W 8D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 70%.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 games (1.30 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 16W 11D 10L in their last 37 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.44 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, SC Paderborn 07 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 50% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Nürnberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 0-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.21 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.35 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.02 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 34% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 40%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 68%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.30 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.