1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees FC St. Pauli travel to Max-Morlock-Stadion to take on 1. FC Nürnberg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC St. Pauli — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Nürnberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC St. Pauli in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
FC St. Pauli have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against 1. FC Nürnberg's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–5 with FC St. Pauli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC St. Pauli have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC St. Pauli trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 48% versus FC St. Pauli 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 52% | FC St. Pauli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.60 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.959 / defence 1.069 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.141 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.411. Data: 59 1. FC Nürnberg games / 59 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 36% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 41%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | FC St. Pauli 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% | FC St. Pauli 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 36% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.60 / FC St. Pauli 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.959 / def 1.069 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.141 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.72
FC St. Pauli xG
66%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 36% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 0W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 4W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
36%
2.78
23%
4.36
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.32
1.72
FC St. Pauli xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
6%
15.51
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.72 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 20W 15D 24L from 59 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 30W 19D 10L across 59 games — 1.85 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Nürnberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 12W 8D 9L from 29 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 13W 7D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.71 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 games (1.27 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 30W 19D 10L in their last 59 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.52 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.59 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
5
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, FC St. Pauli have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 45%, FC St. Pauli 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 62% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 62% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 62% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.60 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.72 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.14 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 36% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 41%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 52%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.