1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Avnet Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 0W 8D 2L at Avnet Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Avnet Arena this season.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Paderborn 07 are 0.50 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SC Paderborn 07 in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Magdeburg lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 59% and SC Paderborn 07 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 57% | SC Paderborn 07 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.776 / defence 1.110 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.067 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.547. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 1. FC Magdeburg games / 49 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 21% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 52%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | SC Paderborn 07 1.92. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 60% | SC Paderborn 07 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Avnet Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 21% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.12 / SC Paderborn 07 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.776 / def 1.110 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.067 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.547 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.83
SC Paderborn 07 xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Avnet Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Avnet Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 21% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 0W | Draws 3 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.07x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
21%
4.72
27%
3.73
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.96
1.83
SC Paderborn 07 xG
4.72
21%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
3%
29.49
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.83 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 15W 17D 17L from 49 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 14L across 49 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.61 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 6W 11D 7L from 24 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 11W 7D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.65 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 71%.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 15W 17D 17L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 22W 13D 14L in their last 49 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.21 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
1. FC Magdeburg
4
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 4-3 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for 1. FC Magdeburg, 83% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 79% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 83% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 79% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 16, as 1. FC Magdeburg and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.11 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 21% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 52%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 57%, SC Paderborn 07 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.27 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.