1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC meet at Avnet-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Magdeburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Magdeburg's home record at Avnet-Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hertha BSC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.40 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hertha BSC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 2 for Hertha BSC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Hertha BSC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 57% versus Hertha BSC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 63% | Hertha BSC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47 xG and Hertha BSC 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.006 / defence 1.155 | Hertha BSC attack 1.324 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.289. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 1. FC Magdeburg games / 65 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 48%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Hertha BSC 2.08. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 60% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47 / Hertha BSC 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.006 / def 1.155 | Hertha BSC attack 1.324 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Hertha BSC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Avnet-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 28% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 2W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 2W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.32x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
28%
3.62
24%
4.18
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.44
1.97
Hertha BSC xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
4%
25.99
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.97 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 14D 27L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.42 PPG from 65 outings (25W 17D 23L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for 1. FC Magdeburg against 1.42 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Magdeburg's home form reads 9W 9D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 1.72 points per game from 32 outings (16W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.43 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 24W 14D 27L in their last 65 games (1.32 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 25W 17D 23L in their last 65 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.12 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
3
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC?
From 7 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 50%, Hertha BSC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 66% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 31%; 1. FC Magdeburg have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 59% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 66% of Hertha BSC's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Magdeburg defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Hertha BSC 1-0 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47 xG and Hertha BSC 1.97 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hertha BSC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against Hertha BSC attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 28% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 48%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 63%, Hertha BSC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.32 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.