Saint Etienne 1-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Concarneau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Saint Etienne welcome Concarneau to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Saint Etienne at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Concarneau stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Concarneau's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Saint Etienne are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 0 for Concarneau and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Saint Etienne 1–0 Concarneau — a Saint Etienne win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Concarneau trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 30% of Saint Etienne's games and 40% of Concarneau's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 37% | Concarneau 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.50 xG and Concarneau 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.186 / defence 0.833 | Concarneau attack 0.826 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.178. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 68 games and Concarneau's last 30.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 28% | Concarneau 19%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.90 | Draw 3.60 | Concarneau 5.13. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Concarneau's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 28% | Concarneau 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.50 / Concarneau 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.186 / def 0.833 | Concarneau attack 0.826 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Concarneau xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Concarneau FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Concarneau kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Concarneau kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Concarneau?
Saint Etienne 1 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Concarneau part of?
Saint Etienne vs Concarneau is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 53% chance of winning, Concarneau a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Saint Etienne and Concarneau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Saint Etienne vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.19) and Concarneau's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 68 games and Concarneau's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.60
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.31
0.81
Concarneau xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
23.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Concarneau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.81 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 15W 6D 9L from 30 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Concarneau, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 15L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Concarneau heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 7W 3D 5L from their last 15 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Concarneau's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across their last 15 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 1.07 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Concarneau
Current Season
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Concarneau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Concarneau
Current Season
❓ Saint Etienne vs Concarneau Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 15W 6D 9L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 9W 6D 15L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Concarneau away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.60 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Concarneau in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Concarneau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Concarneau?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 2, Concarneau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Concarneau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Saint Etienne 1-0 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Concarneau?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Saint Etienne 33% BTTS, Concarneau 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Saint Etienne) and 33% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Concarneau in 33%; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 40% of games; Concarneau in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Concarneau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Concarneau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 20% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Concarneau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 33% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Concarneau 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Concarneau 1-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.50 xG and Concarneau 0.81 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Concarneau landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Concarneau attack 0.83 / defence 1.08, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 53% | Draw 28% | Concarneau 19%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 37%, Concarneau 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Concarneau's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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