PAU 1-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ajaccio travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, PAU stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAU at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajaccio — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ajaccio's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAU at 1.20 PPG versus Ajaccio's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for PAU, 2 for Ajaccio and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended PAU 0–2 Ajaccio — a Ajaccio win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Ajaccio trading profile (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 52% versus Ajaccio 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 44% | Ajaccio 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.86 xG and Ajaccio 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.159 / defence 1.200 | Ajaccio attack 0.594 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.172. Ajaccio's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAU's projected output up. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.594 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from PAU's last 68 games and Ajaccio's last 30.
Result probabilities: PAU 61% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 16%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.64 | Draw 4.30 | Ajaccio 6.35. The model has a clear lean to PAU (61%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Ajaccio's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PAU 70% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 61% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG PAU 1.86 / Ajaccio 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.159 / def 1.200 | Ajaccio attack 0.594 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: PAU (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Ajaccio xG
48%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does PAU vs Ajaccio kick off?
PAU vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Ajaccio?
PAU 1 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is PAU vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Ajaccio part of?
PAU vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 61% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PAU and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will PAU vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.16x the league average against Ajaccio's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 68 games and Ajaccio's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.30
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
PAU xG
Total xG
2.70
0.83
Ajaccio xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
40.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are PAU and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for PAU and 0.83 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, PAU have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 23W 21D 24L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Ajaccio's form line: 17W 13D 38L from 68 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 34 home games (12W 11D 11L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 5W 5D 24L from their last 34 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.75 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
PAU (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
❓ PAU vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 23W 21D 24L in their last 68 games (1.32 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 17W 13D 38L in their last 68 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Ajaccio away?
PAU's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.38 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
PAU
2
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Ajaccio?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 2, Ajaccio have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Ajaccio 1-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 47%, Ajaccio 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PAU) and 56% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: PAU have failed to score in 29% of games; Ajaccio in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of PAU's recent matches and 38% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PAU's recent games and 56% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of PAU's recent matches and 71% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Ajaccio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 31, as PAU and Ajaccio drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.86 xG and Ajaccio 0.83 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PAU fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.16 / defence 1.20 against Ajaccio attack 0.59 / defence 1.38, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 61% | Draw 23% | Ajaccio 16%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 44%, Ajaccio 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ajaccio's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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