Rodez vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Rodez at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Guingamp encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul-Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Rodez have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rodez register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

Guingamp have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 10 encounters against Rodez's 1 victories.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Guingamp have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Rodez in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 74% and Guingamp 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 53% | Guingamp 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.79 xG and Guingamp 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.273 / defence 1.029 | Guingamp attack 0.805 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Rodez games / 38 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rodez 54% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 20%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 5.00. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Guingamp lead the H2H ledger, but Rodez carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 80% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.

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