Rodez 0-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Rodez welcome Guingamp to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rodez at 1.50 PPG versus Guingamp's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Rodez have won 0, Guingamp 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rodez in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 58% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 44% | Guingamp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.55 xG and Guingamp 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.335 / defence 1.131 | Guingamp attack 0.926 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.119. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Rodez games / 51 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 46% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Guingamp 3.57. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 46% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Rodez 1.55 / Guingamp 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.335 / def 1.131 | Guingamp attack 0.926 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Rodez (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Guingamp xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Guingamp kick off?
Rodez vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Rodez 0 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Rodez vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Guingamp part of?
Rodez vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 46% chance of winning, Guingamp a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Rodez and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.33) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.89
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.73
1.17
Guingamp xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
6%
16.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rodez and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Rodez and 1.17 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 15W 17D 18L from 50 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 16L across 50 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.24 PPG, Guingamp on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 8W 8D 9L from 25 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 10W 8D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.34 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 15W 17D 18L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 19W 15D 16L in their last 50 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.28 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Rodez or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Guingamp in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Guingamp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rodez
5
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 64%, Guingamp 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rodez) and 40% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 36%; Rodez have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Rodez's games and 56% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rodez's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Guingamp tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rodez's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 14, as Rodez and Guingamp drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.55 xG and Guingamp 1.17 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rodez fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Guingamp landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.33 / defence 1.13 against Guingamp attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 46% | Draw 26% | Guingamp 28%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 44%, Guingamp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.24 PPG, Guingamp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.