Rodez vs Clermont Foot – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Clermont Foot meet at Stade Paul-Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Paul-Lignon, Rodez have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul-Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot (all games): 0W 7D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Rodez, 0.70 for Clermont Foot — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rodez register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Clermont Foot in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rodez, 1 for Clermont Foot and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 68% and Clermont Foot 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 54% | Clermont Foot 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.72 xG and Clermont Foot 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.053 / defence 1.322 | Clermont Foot attack 1.093 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.337. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Rodez games / 43 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 34% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 43%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Clermont Foot 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Paul-Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 16 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 34% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Rodez 1.72 / Clermont Foot 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.053 / def 1.322 | Clermont Foot attack 1.093 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Clermont Foot xG
71%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Rodez vs Clermont Foot is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 16 April 2027 at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Where is Rodez vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul-Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Clermont Foot part of?
Rodez vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 34% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Rodez and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 2 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Rodez and Clermont Foot in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.05) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.09x) against Rodez's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
34%
2.90
23%
4.42
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.65
1.93
Clermont Foot xG
2.90
34%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
15%
6.90
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
5%
20.01
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Rodez and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Rodez and 1.93 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 18W 14D 12L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 9W 17D 18L from 44 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 7D 10L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.07 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 14D 12L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 17D 18L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Clermont Foot away?
Rodez's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.62 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rodez
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-2 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Rodez, 62% for Clermont Foot — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rodez) and 52% (Clermont Foot).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rodez's games and 62% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Rodez's recent games and 52% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.