RED Star FC 93 1-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque meet at Stade de Paris in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Paris this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dunkerque (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RED Star FC 93 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
RED Star FC 93 half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 54% versus Dunkerque 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 48% | Dunkerque 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.15 xG and Dunkerque 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.772 / defence 1.081 | Dunkerque attack 0.853 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.102. RED Star FC 93's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 RED Star FC 93 games / 71 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 39% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 32%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Dunkerque 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 60% | Dunkerque 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 39% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.15 / Dunkerque 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.772 / def 1.081 | Dunkerque attack 0.853 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Dunkerque xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
RED Star FC 93 1 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 39% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): RED Star FC 93 0W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.85x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.41
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.16
1.01
Dunkerque xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.01 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 10D 14L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Dunkerque's form line: 17W 4D 12L from 33 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Dunkerque are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RED Star FC 93.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dunkerque's season.
Attack vs Defence
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 17W 4D 12L in their last 33 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Dunkerque away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.38 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.12 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dunkerque won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
1
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, Dunkerque have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when RED Star FC 93 1-0 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 50%, Dunkerque 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RED Star FC 93) and 31% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 50% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 31% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 and Dunkerque finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.15 xG and Dunkerque 1.01 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Dunkerque attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 39% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 32%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 48%, Dunkerque 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.