PAU 1-0 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as PAU welcome Nimes to Stade Nouste Camp. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Nimes — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAU at 1.30 PPG versus Nimes's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for PAU, 1 for Nimes and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2022, ended 0–3 with Nimes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
PAU in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Nimes in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 46% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 46% | Nimes 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.76 xG and Nimes 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.023 / defence 1.168 | Nimes attack 1.053 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.113. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 PAU games / 50 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 47% | Draw 23% | Nimes 30%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Nimes 3.33. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAU 50% | Nimes 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 47% | Draw 23% | Nimes 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG PAU 1.76 / Nimes 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.023 / def 1.168 | Nimes attack 1.053 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: PAU (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Nimes xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Nimes kick off?
PAU vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Nimes?
PAU 1 - 0 Nimes.
Where is PAU vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Nimes part of?
PAU vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 47% chance of winning, Nimes a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both PAU and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Nimes?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 1 | Nimes 1W.
What form are PAU and Nimes in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Nimes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.02) and Nimes's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.30
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
PAU xG
Total xG
3.13
1.37
Nimes xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
5%
19.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are PAU and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for PAU and 1.37 for Nimes, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, PAU have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 17W 12D 21L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 17W 9D 24L from 50 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.26 PPG, Nimes on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.58 PPG from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 8W 3D 13L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.12 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Nimes in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 17W 12D 21L in their last 50 games (1.26 PPG), while Nimes have gone 17W 9D 24L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Nimes away?
PAU's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.58 PPG; Nimes away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2022, when Nimes won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
2
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Nimes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Nimes 3-2 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Nimes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 42%, Nimes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAU) and 62% (Nimes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of PAU's matches and 62% of Nimes's.
Do PAU and Nimes tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nimes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Nimes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Nimes 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.76 xG and Nimes 1.37 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nimes landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Nimes attack 1.05 / defence 1.45, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 47% | Draw 23% | Nimes 30%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 46%, Nimes 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Nimes's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.26 PPG, Nimes 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.