PAU 0-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Estac Troyes travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
PAU — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, PAU have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Estac Troyes have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Estac Troyes have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 1.40 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for PAU, 1 for Estac Troyes and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2024, ended PAU 0–3 Estac Troyes — a Estac Troyes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PAU in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 57% versus Estac Troyes 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 52% | Estac Troyes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.01 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.875 / defence 1.092 | Estac Troyes attack 0.918 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.061. Data: built from PAU's last 63 games and Estac Troyes's last 63.
Result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.98 | Draw 3.31 | Estac Troyes 2.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 40% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG PAU 1.01 / Estac Troyes 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.875 / def 1.092 | Estac Troyes attack 0.918 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Estac Troyes xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does PAU vs Estac Troyes kick off?
PAU vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 7 March 2025 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
PAU 0 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is PAU vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Estac Troyes part of?
PAU vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 34% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both PAU and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will PAU vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.88x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 63 games and Estac Troyes's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
34%
2.98
30%
3.31
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
PAU xG
Total xG
2.07
1.06
Estac Troyes xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are PAU and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for PAU and 1.06 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU's recent record stands at 21W 21D 21L from 63 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 27L across 63 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.33 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAU have managed 13W 10D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 6W 10D 15L across their last 31 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.10 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
PAU (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 21W 21D 21L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 18W 18D 27L in their last 63 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Estac Troyes away?
PAU's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.58 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.90 PPG.
Have PAU or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Oct 2024, when Estac Troyes won Estac Troyes 3-0 PAU.
PAU's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
PAU
3
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Estac Troyes 4-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 48%, Estac Troyes 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (PAU) and 42% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 32%; Estac Troyes in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAU's recent matches and 39% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAU and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of PAU's recent games and 42% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of PAU's recent matches and 58% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat PAU 0-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.01 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PAU fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Estac Troyes attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 52%, Estac Troyes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.33 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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