Estac Troyes 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Aube. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guingamp have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estac Troyes lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–4 with Guingamp winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 44% versus Guingamp 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 50% | Guingamp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.36 xG and Guingamp 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.990 / defence 0.817 | Guingamp attack 1.174 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.070. Data: 64 Estac Troyes games / 64 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 44% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 10% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 44% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Estac Troyes 1.36 / Guingamp 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.990 / def 0.817 | Guingamp attack 1.174 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Guingamp xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Guingamp kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Estac Troyes 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Guingamp part of?
Estac Troyes vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 44% chance of winning, Guingamp a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Estac Troyes and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Guingamp in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.99x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.17x) against Estac Troyes's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.66
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.38
1.03
Guingamp xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.03 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 19W 18D 27L from 64 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 26W 15D 23L across 64 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.45 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 12W 7D 12L from 31 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 13W 6D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.36 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 26W 15D 23L in their last 64 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.39 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Guingamp in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 48%, Guingamp 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Estac Troyes) and 45% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 39%; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 32% of games; Guingamp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 45% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 45% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Guingamp tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.36 xG and Guingamp 1.03 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.99 / defence 0.82 against Guingamp attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 44% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 28%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 50%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.17 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.