PAU 0-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Estac Troyes have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 1.40 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for PAU, 1 for Estac Troyes and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Estac Troyes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
PAU in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 57% versus Estac Troyes 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 52% | Estac Troyes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.01 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.875 / defence 1.092 | Estac Troyes attack 0.918 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.061. Data: 63 PAU games / 63 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Estac Troyes 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Estac Troyes 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG PAU 1.01 / Estac Troyes 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.875 / def 1.092 | Estac Troyes attack 0.918 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Estac Troyes xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Estac Troyes kick off?
PAU vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
PAU 0 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is PAU vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Estac Troyes part of?
PAU vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 34% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both PAU and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Estac Troyes?
Record (3 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 2 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are PAU and Estac Troyes in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.88x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
34%
2.98
30%
3.31
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
PAU xG
Total xG
2.07
1.06
Estac Troyes xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are PAU and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for PAU and 1.06 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU's recent record stands at 21W 21D 21L from 63 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 27L across 63 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.33 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAU have managed 13W 10D 8L from 31 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 6W 10D 15L across 31 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.10 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 21W 21D 21L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 18W 18D 27L in their last 63 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Estac Troyes away?
PAU's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.58 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.90 PPG.
Have PAU or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Estac Troyes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
PAU
3
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Estac Troyes 4-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 48%, Estac Troyes 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (PAU) and 42% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 32%; Estac Troyes in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAU's recent matches and 39% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of PAU's recent games and 42% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat PAU 0-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.01 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PAU fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Estac Troyes attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 52%, Estac Troyes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.33 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.