Paris FC 0-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Paris FC face Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Charléty plays host to Paris FC versus Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Paris FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Paris FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Annecy have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Paris FC against 1.80 for Annecy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Paris FC's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Paris FC's games and 80% of Annecy's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Paris FC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended Paris FC 2–1 Annecy — a Paris FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Paris FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 51% versus Annecy 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 49% | Annecy 57%). Note also that Annecy surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Paris FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 2.06 xG and Annecy 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.198 / defence 1.089 | Annecy attack 1.110 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.094. Data: built from Paris FC's last 51 games and Annecy's last 51.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 54% | Draw 21% | Annecy 24%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.84 | Draw 4.71 | Annecy 4.12. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.06 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Paris FC's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 54% | Draw 21% | Annecy 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Paris FC 2.06 / Annecy 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.198 / def 1.089 | Annecy attack 1.110 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Annecy xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Annecy kick off?
Paris FC vs Annecy kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Annecy?
Paris FC 0 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Paris FC vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Annecy part of?
Paris FC vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 54% chance of winning, Annecy a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Paris FC and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris FC vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.11x) against Paris FC's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 51 games and Annecy's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.71
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Paris FC xG
Total xG
3.38
1.32
Annecy xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
3%
32.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.32 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Paris FC come into this having played 51 games, going 24W 15D 12L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.33 PPG from 51 outings (18W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Paris FC against 1.33 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Paris FC's home form reads 14W 5D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Paris FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.37 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Annecy in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 24W 15D 12L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while Annecy have gone 18W 14D 19L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Annecy away?
Paris FC's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.96 PPG; Annecy away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Paris FC
2
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Annecy?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 3, Annecy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2025: Annecy 2-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Annecy?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 58%, Annecy 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Paris FC and 67% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Annecy matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Paris FC's games and 62% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Paris FC and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Paris FC's matches and 67% of Annecy's.
Do Paris FC and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Paris FC's recent matches and 62% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Paris FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 14, as Paris FC and Annecy drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 2.06 xG and Annecy 1.32 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Paris FC fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Annecy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.09 against Annecy attack 1.11 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 54% | Draw 21% | Annecy 24%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 49%, Annecy 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.71 PPG, Annecy 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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