Guingamp 3-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Amiens at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 1.30 PPG, Amiens 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Guingamp, 3 for Amiens and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Amiens trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 41% versus Amiens 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 51% | Amiens 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.93 xG and Amiens 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.154 / defence 0.999 | Amiens attack 1.092 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.084. Data: 51 Guingamp games / 51 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 22% | Amiens 23%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Amiens 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Amiens 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 55% | Draw 22% | Amiens 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Guingamp 1.93 / Amiens 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.154 / def 0.999 | Amiens attack 1.092 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Amiens xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Amiens kick off?
Guingamp vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Guingamp 3 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Guingamp vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Amiens part of?
Guingamp vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 55% chance of winning, Amiens a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Guingamp and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
Record (6 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 2 | Amiens 3W.
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Guingamp vs Amiens?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
55%
1.83
22%
4.53
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.11
1.18
Amiens xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
15%
6.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
3%
29.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.18 for Amiens, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 13D 19L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.43 PPG from 51 outings (18W 19D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.37 PPG, Amiens on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.04 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Amiens in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Amiens in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Amiens have gone 18W 19D 14L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Amiens away?
Guingamp's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.40 PPG; Amiens away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Amiens in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Amiens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Amiens have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 40%, Amiens 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Guingamp) and 40% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Amiens in 32%; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games; Amiens in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Guingamp's recent matches and 40% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Guingamp's recent games and 40% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Amiens tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Amiens in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Amiens 3-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.93 xG and Amiens 1.18 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Amiens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 1.00 against Amiens attack 1.09 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 55% | Draw 22% | Amiens 23%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 51%, Amiens 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.37 PPG, Amiens 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.