Laval 1-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Francis Le Basser to face Laval in Ligue 2 (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Laval (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Laval's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Rodez have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rodez's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Laval. A 0.50 PPG lead over Rodez (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Laval 0–1 Rodez — a Rodez win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Laval — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rodez — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 37% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 51% versus Rodez 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 59% | Rodez 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.17 xG and Rodez 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 1.013 / defence 0.889 | Rodez attack 1.001 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.078. Data: built from Laval's last 40 games and Rodez's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Laval 41% | Draw 29% | Rodez 30%. Fair-value odds: Laval 2.46 | Draw 3.39 | Rodez 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Laval's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Laval 50% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Laval 40 games, Rodez 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 3 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 41% | Draw 29% | Rodez 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Laval 1.17 / Rodez 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 1.013 / def 0.889 | Rodez attack 1.001 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Laval (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Rodez xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Laval vs Rodez FAQs
What time does Laval vs Rodez kick off?
Laval vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Rodez?
Laval 1 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Laval vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Rodez part of?
Laval vs Rodez is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 3) (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 41% chance of winning, Rodez a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Laval and Rodez will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Laval vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Laval's attack at 1.01x the league average against Rodez's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.00x) against Laval's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Laval's last 40 games and Rodez's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.39
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Laval xG
Total xG
2.13
0.96
Rodez xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Laval vs Rodez Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Laval and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Laval and 0.96 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Laval have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 4D 21L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Rodez's form line: 11W 14D 14L from 39 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Laval against 1.21 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.68 PPG from their last 19 home games (10W 2D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Laval are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rodez have gone 6W 7D 6L from their last 19 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Laval are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.05 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
Laval (Home) vs Rodez (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Laval
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Laval vs Rodez Form FAQs
What form are Laval and Rodez in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 14W 4D 21L in their last 39 games (1.18 PPG), while Rodez have gone 11W 14D 14L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Rodez away?
Laval's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.68 PPG; Rodez away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Laval
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Laval vs Rodez H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Rodez?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Laval have won 5, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Rodez last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Rodez 3-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Rodez?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 37% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 53%, Rodez 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Laval) and 32% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 32%; Rodez in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Laval vs Rodez Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Laval and Rodez matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Laval's recent matches and 42% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Laval and Rodez matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Laval's recent games and 32% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Rodez matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Laval's recent matches and 37% of Rodez's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Rodez 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Rodez 1-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.17 xG and Rodez 0.96 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rodez landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Rodez attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Laval 41% | Draw 29% | Rodez 30%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 59%, Rodez 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.18 PPG, Rodez 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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