Annecy 3-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dunkerque make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Annecy (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Annecy's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Annecy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dunkerque's record over their last 2 games: 1W 1D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dunkerque are 1.00 PPG clear of Annecy over their recent games (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.11 xG and Dunkerque 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.956 / defence 1.243 | Dunkerque attack 0.861 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.078. Annecy's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dunkerque's projected output up. Data: built from Annecy's last 40 games and Dunkerque's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 37%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.89 | Draw 3.49 | Dunkerque 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Annecy 40 games, Dunkerque 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 3 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Annecy 1.11 / Dunkerque 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.956 / def 1.243 | Dunkerque attack 0.861 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Dunkerque xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Dunkerque FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Dunkerque kick off?
Annecy vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Annecy 3 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Annecy vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Dunkerque part of?
Annecy vs Dunkerque is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 3) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 35% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Dunkerque will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Annecy vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Annecy's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (0.86x) against Annecy's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 40 games and Dunkerque's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
35%
2.89
29%
3.49
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.26
1.15
Dunkerque xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Dunkerque Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Annecy and 1.15 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Annecy have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — L-D across the most recent five.
Dunkerque's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W.
Put side by side, Dunkerque are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Annecy.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Dunkerque in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
Annecy (Home) vs Dunkerque (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Early Season
Dunkerque
Early Season
❓ Annecy vs Dunkerque Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Annecy or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Annecy and Dunkerque, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Annecy have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won Annecy 3-0 Dunkerque on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Dunkerque H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dunkerque?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 5, Dunkerque have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Annecy and Dunkerque last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Dunkerque 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Dunkerque?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Dunkerque Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Dunkerque matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Annecy's recent matches and 50% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Dunkerque matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Annecy's recent games and 50% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Dunkerque 3-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.11 xG and Dunkerque 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dunkerque landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against Dunkerque attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 35% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 37%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Dunkerque 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Annecy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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