Laval 1-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade Francis Le Basser to face Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Laval have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade Francis Le Basser — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Laval against 1.40 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Laval lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 50% versus Amiens 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 50% | Amiens 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 0.97 xG and Amiens 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.940 / defence 1.290 | Amiens attack 0.769 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.091. Data: 64 Laval games / 64 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 32% | Draw 31% | Amiens 37%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Amiens 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 70% | Amiens 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 32% | Draw 31% | Amiens 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Laval 0.97 / Amiens 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.940 / def 1.290 | Amiens attack 0.769 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Amiens (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Amiens xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Amiens kick off?
Laval vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Amiens?
Laval 1 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Laval vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Amiens part of?
Laval vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 32% chance of winning, Amiens a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Laval and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Amiens?
Record (3 meetings): Laval 1W | Draws 1 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Laval and Amiens in?
Laval (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Amiens (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Laval's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.77x) against Laval's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
32%
3.17
31%
3.23
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Laval xG
Total xG
2.05
1.08
Amiens xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.9 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Laval and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Laval and 1.08 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Laval come into this having played 64 games, going 26W 12D 26L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.31 PPG from 64 outings (22W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Laval against 1.31 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Laval's home form reads 14W 6D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.13 points per game from 31 outings (9W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.95 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Amiens in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 26W 12D 26L in their last 64 games (1.41 PPG), while Amiens have gone 22W 18D 24L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Amiens away?
Laval's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.55 PPG; Amiens away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Laval or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Amiens in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 0-3 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Laval
3
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 3, Amiens have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Amiens 0-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Amiens?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 58%, Amiens 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Laval) and 39% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Laval's recent matches and 42% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Laval's recent games and 39% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Amiens tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Amiens in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval and Amiens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval and Amiens finished level at 1-1 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.97 xG and Amiens 1.08 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.94 / defence 1.29 against Amiens attack 0.77 / defence 0.87, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 32% | Draw 31% | Amiens 37%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 50%, Amiens 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.41 PPG, Amiens 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.