Angers 3-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Angers at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Ajaccio at Stade Raymond Kopa in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Angers have posted 9W 0D 1L at Stade Raymond Kopa — 2.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Raymond Kopa. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Ajaccio have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Angers 1.50 PPG, Ajaccio 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Angers's 20% rate and Ajaccio's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Angers, 2 for Ajaccio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ajaccio trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 48% versus Ajaccio 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 55% | Ajaccio 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.66 xG and Ajaccio 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.122 / defence 1.017 | Ajaccio attack 0.622 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.083. Ajaccio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Angers games / 26 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 60% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 14%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Ajaccio 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Angers (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 20% | Ajaccio 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 60% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG Angers 1.66 / Ajaccio 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.122 / def 1.017 | Ajaccio attack 0.622 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Angers (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Ajaccio xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Ajaccio kick off?
Angers vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 4 March 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Ajaccio?
Angers 3 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Angers vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Ajaccio part of?
Angers vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 60% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Angers and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Ajaccio?
Record (3 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 1 | Ajaccio 2W.
What form are Angers and Ajaccio in?
Angers (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Angers's attack rating (1.12) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.90
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Angers xG
Total xG
2.34
0.69
Ajaccio xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
3%
36.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Angers and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Angers and 0.69 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Angers come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 10D 36L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 1.00 PPG from 64 outings (17W 13D 34L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.00 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Angers's home form reads 13W 5D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 0.62 points per game from 32 outings (5W 5D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.77 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 18W 10D 36L in their last 64 games (1.00 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 17W 13D 34L in their last 64 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Ajaccio away?
Angers's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.38 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Angers and Ajaccio runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Angers's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Ajaccio?
From 4 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Ajaccio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2024, when Angers 3-1 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Ajaccio?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 56%, Ajaccio 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Angers) and 56% (Ajaccio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Ajaccio in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Angers's recent matches and 38% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Angers's matches and 56% of Ajaccio's.
Do Angers and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Ajaccio 3-1 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.66 xG and Ajaccio 0.69 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.12 / defence 1.02 against Ajaccio attack 0.62 / defence 1.27, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 60% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 14%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 55%, Ajaccio 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Ajaccio's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.00 PPG, Ajaccio 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Ajaccio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.