Guingamp vs Reims – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Reims at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Reims encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Reims travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have recorded 4W 6D 0L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reims are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 0, Reims 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Reims winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Reims in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Reims 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 55% | Reims 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.14 xG and Reims 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.097 / defence 1.075 | Reims attack 1.199 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 38 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 25% | Draw 28% | Reims 47%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Reims 2.13. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 30% | Reims 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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