Dunkerque 0-1 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Quevilly travel to Stade Marcel-Tribut to take on Dunkerque. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 1W 3D 3L from 7 Ligue 2 matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.86 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dunkerque have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dunkerque's home record at Stade Marcel-Tribut: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Ligue 2 appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Dunkerque are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.56 PPG ahead (0.86 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dunkerque, 1 for Quevilly and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Quevilly winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 43% versus Quevilly 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 57% | Quevilly 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.14 xG and Quevilly 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.736 / defence 1.199 | Quevilly attack 1.072 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.050. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Dunkerque's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Dunkerque games / 46 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 32% | Draw 27% | Quevilly 42%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Quevilly 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dunkerque (0.86 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 50% | Quevilly 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 32% | Draw 27% | Quevilly 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Dunkerque 1.14 / Quevilly 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.736 / def 1.199 | Quevilly attack 1.072 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Quevilly xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Quevilly kick off?
Dunkerque vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Dunkerque 0 - 1 Quevilly.
Where is Dunkerque vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Quevilly part of?
Dunkerque vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 32% chance of winning, Quevilly a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dunkerque and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Quevilly in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Quevilly (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dunkerque's attack at 0.74x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
32%
3.17
27%
3.72
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.49
1.35
Quevilly xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.35 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 1W 3D 3L from 7 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Dunkerque, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 5L across 7 games — 0.29 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Quevilly heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Quevilly's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dunkerque are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Quevilly away?
Dunkerque's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.33 PPG; Quevilly away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dunkerque's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
1
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Quevilly have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Quevilly 1-2 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dunkerque at 33%, Quevilly at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Dunkerque and 100% for Quevilly. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Dunkerque have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Quevilly?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Dunkerque's games and 100% of Quevilly's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dunkerque vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Dunkerque's matches and 100% of Quevilly's.
Do Dunkerque and Quevilly tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Quevilly edge out Dunkerque 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Dunkerque 0-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.14 xG and Quevilly 1.35 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.74 / defence 1.20 against Quevilly attack 1.07 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 32% | Draw 27% | Quevilly 42%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 57%, Quevilly 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 0.86 PPG against 0.29. Form was overturned, with Quevilly winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Quevilly (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.