Dunkerque 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 42%, yet in-form Dunkerque provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dunkerque vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Dunkerque and Guingamp meet at Stade Marcel-Tribut in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Current Form

Dunkerque's record over their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Dunkerque have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Guingamp (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Guingamp's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form ledger tips toward Dunkerque. A 0.80 PPG lead over Guingamp (2.10 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Dunkerque's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) — Dunkerque have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Guingamp in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Guingamp edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Dunkerque 1–0 Guingamp — a Dunkerque win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 31 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 42% versus Guingamp 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 42% | Guingamp 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.84 xG and Guingamp 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.784 / defence 1.195 | Guingamp attack 0.846 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Dunkerque's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Dunkerque's last 31 games and Guingamp's last 69.

Result probabilities: Dunkerque 25% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 42%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 4.03 | Draw 3.04 | Guingamp 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dunkerque (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dunkerque's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dunkerque 20% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 30% (last 10 away games).

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