Amiens 0-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Amiens at 35%, yet in-form Dunkerque provide a compelling counter-argument — this Amiens vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Amiens host Dunkerque at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Amiens — last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Amiens at home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Dunkerque have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Dunkerque's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dunkerque are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Amiens's games and 60% of Dunkerque's (from Amiens's last 10 home games and Dunkerque's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Amiens, 0 for Dunkerque and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Amiens 1–0 Dunkerque — a Amiens win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Amiens in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 41% versus Dunkerque 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 25% | Dunkerque 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Amiens surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Dunkerque have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Dunkerque surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Amiens recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.12 xG and Dunkerque 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.937 / defence 0.967 | Dunkerque attack 0.947 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.182. Data: built from Amiens's last 70 games and Dunkerque's last 32.

Result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 32% | Dunkerque 33%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.85 | Draw 3.15 | Dunkerque 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dunkerque (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Amiens's last 10 home games and Dunkerque's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Amiens 60% (last 10 home games) | Dunkerque 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights