Dijon vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Guingamp travel to to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Dijon 0.50 PPG, Guingamp 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dijon register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dijon, 2 for Guingamp and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 75% and Guingamp 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dijon 25% | Guingamp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.21 xG and Guingamp 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.857 / defence 1.243 | Guingamp attack 0.805 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 4 Dijon games / 38 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 33% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 36%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Guingamp 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 75% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 16 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 33% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Dijon 1.21 / Guingamp 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.857 / def 1.243 | Guingamp attack 0.805 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Guingamp xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Guingamp kick off?
Dijon vs Guingamp is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 16 April 2027.
What competition is Dijon vs Guingamp part of?
Dijon vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 33% chance of winning, Guingamp a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dijon and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Dijon 0W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in?
Dijon (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L. Guingamp (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dijon's attack rating (0.86) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
33%
2.99
31%
3.25
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.46
1.25
Guingamp xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dijon and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Dijon and 1.25 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Dijon have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 2D 2L record — D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
The Goals Picture
Dijon are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dijon and Guingamp runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dijon's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dijon
2
Draws
2
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Guingamp have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 75%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Dijon) and 50% (Guingamp).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dijon's games and 50% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Dijon's recent games and 50% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Guingamp tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.