Clermont Foot 2-3 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host RED Star FC 93 at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 7D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. RED Star FC 93 are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 58% versus RED Star FC 93 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 42% | RED Star FC 93 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.81 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.726 / defence 0.735 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.143 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.227. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 0.735 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Clermont Foot games / 40 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 27% | Draw 33% | RED Star FC 93 39%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | RED Star FC 93 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 40% | RED Star FC 93 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 27% | Draw 33% | RED Star FC 93 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Clermont Foot 0.81 / RED Star FC 93 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.726 / def 0.735 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.143 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.03
RED Star FC 93 xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Clermont Foot 2 - 3 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 27% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 3 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
27%
3.64
33%
3.00
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.84
1.03
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 16.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.03 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 9W 16D 16L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 19W 12D 10L from 41 games, 1.68 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (5W 9D 6L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 11W 4D 5L from 20 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.37 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 16D 16L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.20 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
RED Star FC 93 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
3
Draws
2
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
From 5 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Clermont Foot 2-3 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 60%, RED Star FC 93 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Clermont Foot) and 50% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 40%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 45% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 50% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Clermont Foot 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Clermont Foot 2-3 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.81 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.03 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.73 / defence 0.73 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.14 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 27% | Draw 33% | RED Star FC 93 39%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 42%, RED Star FC 93 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.