Clermont Foot 0-1 Caen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Caen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Caen travel to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to take on Clermont Foot. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel-Montpied this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Caen — All Games: 0W 1D 9L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Clermont Foot are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 0 for Caen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Caen in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 48% versus Caen 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 43% | Caen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.30 xG and Caen 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.821 / defence 1.076 | Caen attack 0.814 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.057. Caen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Clermont Foot's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Clermont Foot games / 62 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 45% | Draw 28% | Caen 27%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Caen 3.70. Clermont Foot hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Clermont Foot 70% | Caen 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 45% | Draw 28% | Caen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Clermont Foot 1.30 / Caen 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.821 / def 1.076 | Caen attack 0.814 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Caen xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Caen kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Caen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Caen?
Clermont Foot 0 - 1 Caen.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Caen part of?
Clermont Foot vs Caen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 45% chance of winning, Caen a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Clermont Foot and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Caen?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Caen 0W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Caen in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Caen (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Caen's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.53
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.22
0.93
Caen xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.59
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.93 for Caen, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot come into this having played 58 games, going 11W 17D 30L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Caen sit at 1.07 PPG from 58 outings (17W 11D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 0.86 PPG, Caen on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Clermont Foot's home form reads 5W 11D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Caen have taken 0.71 points per game from 28 outings (5W 5D 18L).
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.09 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Caen in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 11W 17D 30L in their last 58 games (0.86 PPG), while Caen have gone 17W 11D 30L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Caen away?
Clermont Foot's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.93 PPG; Caen away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Caen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
1
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Caen?
From 2 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Caen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Caen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 54%, Caen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Clermont Foot) and 71% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 43% of games; Caen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Caen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Clermont Foot's games and 64% of Caen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 71% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Caen tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Caen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Caen defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Clermont Foot 0-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.30 xG and Caen 0.93 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Clermont Foot fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Caen attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 45% | Draw 28% | Caen 27%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Caen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 43%, Caen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Caen's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.86 PPG, Caen 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Caen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.