Bordeaux 2-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bordeaux face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bordeaux host Amiens at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 2 (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Bordeaux — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bordeaux at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Bordeaux are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Amiens have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Amiens away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bordeaux at 1.70 PPG versus Amiens's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Bordeaux, 0 for Amiens and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Feb 2023, ended Bordeaux 2–1 Amiens — a Bordeaux win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Amiens in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 35% versus Amiens 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 40% | Amiens 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.30 xG and Amiens 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.075 / defence 0.788 | Amiens attack 1.023 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 0.990. Bordeaux have a tight defence (rating 0.788), which is pulling Amiens's projected output down. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 40 games and Amiens's last 41.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 48% | Draw 29% | Amiens 23%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.07 | Draw 3.48 | Amiens 4.37. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bordeaux 40% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 4 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 48% | Draw 29% | Amiens 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Bordeaux 1.30 / Amiens 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.075 / def 0.788 | Amiens attack 1.023 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.207 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Amiens xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Amiens kick off?
Bordeaux vs Amiens kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Bordeaux 2 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Bordeaux vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Amiens part of?
Bordeaux vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 4) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 48% chance of winning, Amiens a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bordeaux and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Bordeaux vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 40 games and Amiens's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.48
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.10
0.80
Amiens xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.80 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bordeaux's recent record stands at 21W 10D 9L from 40 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 16L across 40 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bordeaux by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bordeaux have managed 13W 4D 2L from their last 19 home games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Bordeaux are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Amiens's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across their last 19 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bordeaux are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.10 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
Bordeaux (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Early Season
Amiens
Early Season
❓ Bordeaux vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Amiens in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 21W 10D 9L in their last 40 games (1.82 PPG), while Amiens have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Amiens away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.26 PPG; Amiens away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Amiens in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 19 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bordeaux's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
2
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Amiens?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 2, Amiens have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 February 2024: Amiens 1-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Amiens?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 37%, Amiens 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bordeaux) and 47% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 58% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bordeaux's recent games and 47% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 79% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Amiens 2-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.30 xG and Amiens 0.80 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.07 / defence 0.79 against Amiens attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 48% | Draw 29% | Amiens 23%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 40%, Amiens 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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