Bastia 2-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Saint Etienne make the trip to Stade Armand Cesari to face Bastia in Ligue 2 (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bastia's record over their last 10 games: 0W 7D 3L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Bastia have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Saint Etienne have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Saint Etienne away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Saint Etienne are 1.60 PPG clear of Bastia over their recent games (2.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Bastia, 3 for Saint Etienne and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Bastia 2–2 Saint Etienne — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus Saint Etienne 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 30% | Saint Etienne 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bastia surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while Saint Etienne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.70 xG and Saint Etienne 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.626 / defence 1.011 | Saint Etienne attack 0.861 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.172. Bastia's attack rating of 0.626 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Bastia's last 63 games and Saint Etienne's last 30.
Result probabilities: Bastia 23% | Draw 36% | Saint Etienne 41%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 4.39 | Draw 2.74 | Saint Etienne 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.70 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.72 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 75% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bastia's last 10 home games and Saint Etienne's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 20% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 23% | Draw 36% | Saint Etienne 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Bastia 0.70 / Saint Etienne 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.626 / def 1.011 | Saint Etienne attack 0.861 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Saint Etienne xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Bastia vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Bastia 2 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Bastia vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs Saint Etienne part of?
Bastia vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 23% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 41% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Bastia and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Bastia vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bastia's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.86x) against Bastia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 63 games and Saint Etienne's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
23%
4.39
36%
2.74
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.72
1.02
Saint Etienne xG
4.39
23%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 18.3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Bastia and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Bastia and 1.02 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia's recent record stands at 14W 27D 22L from 63 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 26L across 63 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Bastia against 1.38 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 11W 12D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 9W 7D 15L across their last 31 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.46 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Bastia (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Bastia vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 14W 27D 22L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 25W 12D 26L in their last 63 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Saint Etienne away?
Bastia's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.45 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Bastia or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Bastia and Saint Etienne, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won Saint Etienne 5-0 Bastia on 30 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bastia
1
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Saint Etienne?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bastia and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Bastia 2-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 45%, Saint Etienne 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bastia) and 55% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 32% of games; Saint Etienne in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Saint Etienne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bastia's recent matches and 48% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bastia's recent games and 55% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bastia's recent matches and 74% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Saint Etienne 2-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.70 xG and Saint Etienne 1.02 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.63 / defence 1.01 against Saint Etienne attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 63/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 23% | Draw 36% | Saint Etienne 41%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Bastia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.10 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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