Saint Etienne 2-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Saint Etienne welcome Dunkerque to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Dunkerque — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dunkerque have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 1, Dunkerque 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Dunkerque winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 51% versus Dunkerque 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.93 xG and Dunkerque 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.351 / defence 0.892 | Dunkerque attack 1.064 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.144. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Saint Etienne games / 63 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 19%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 40% | Dunkerque 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Saint Etienne 1.93 / Dunkerque 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.351 / def 0.892 | Dunkerque attack 1.064 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Dunkerque xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque?
Saint Etienne 2 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque part of?
Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 55% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Saint Etienne and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Dunkerque?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Dunkerque in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.35) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
55%
1.81
25%
3.95
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.01
1.08
Dunkerque xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
3%
35.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.08 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 63 games, going 24W 12D 27L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 1.57 PPG from 63 outings (28W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.33 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Saint Etienne's home form reads 15W 5D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 1.19 points per game from 31 outings (10W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.43 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 24W 12D 27L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 28W 15D 20L in their last 63 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Dunkerque away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.61 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Dunkerque runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Dunkerque?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Dunkerque have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Dunkerque.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 55%, Dunkerque 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Saint Etienne) and 42% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 55% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 42% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Dunkerque 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Dunkerque 2-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.93 xG and Dunkerque 1.08 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against Dunkerque attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 55% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 19%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.33 PPG, Dunkerque 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.