Bastia 0-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Bastia welcome Dunkerque to Stade Armand Cesari. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bastia — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Armand Cesari this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand Cesari than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dunkerque's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Bastia's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bastia, 2 for Dunkerque and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bastia in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 48% versus Dunkerque 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 36% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.50 xG and Dunkerque 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.054 / defence 1.218 | Dunkerque attack 0.842 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.252. Data: 42 Bastia games / 42 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 42% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 32%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bastia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dunkerque (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 70% | Dunkerque 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 42% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Bastia 1.50 / Dunkerque 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.054 / def 1.218 | Dunkerque attack 0.842 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Bastia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Dunkerque xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Dunkerque kick off?
Bastia vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Bastia 0 - 0 Dunkerque.
Where is Bastia vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs Dunkerque part of?
Bastia vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 42% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bastia and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dunkerque?
Record (6 meetings): Bastia 3W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are Bastia and Dunkerque in?
Bastia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bastia's attack at 1.05x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.97
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.79
1.28
Dunkerque xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bastia and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bastia and 1.28 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia's recent record stands at 11W 18D 13L from 42 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 14L across 42 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bastia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 9W 8D 3L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dunkerque's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.48 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 11W 18D 13L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 20W 8D 14L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Dunkerque away?
Bastia's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.75 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bastia or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2023, when Bastia won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bastia's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
3
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Dunkerque have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Dunkerque?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 60%, Dunkerque 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bastia) and 30% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Dunkerque in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Dunkerque?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Bastia's games and 50% of Dunkerque's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bastia vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bastia's recent games and 30% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Dunkerque finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.50 xG and Dunkerque 1.28 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dunkerque landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against Dunkerque attack 0.84 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 42% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 32%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 36%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dunkerque's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Dunkerque (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.