Bastia 2-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Annecy travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 September 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bastia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bastia have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand-Césari: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bastia 1.50 PPG, Annecy 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bastia, 1 for Annecy and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Annecy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Annecy trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 46% versus Annecy 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 43% | Annecy 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.04 xG and Annecy 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.894 / defence 0.833 | Annecy attack 1.178 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.137. Data: 44 Bastia games / 44 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 33% | Draw 29% | Annecy 37%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Annecy 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 40% | Annecy 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 27 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 33% | Draw 29% | Annecy 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Bastia 1.04 / Annecy 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.894 / def 0.833 | Annecy attack 1.178 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Annecy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Annecy xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Annecy kick off?
Bastia vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 September 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Bastia 2 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Bastia vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Annecy part of?
Bastia vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 33% chance of winning, Annecy a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bastia and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Annecy?
Record (4 meetings): Bastia 3W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Bastia and Annecy in?
Bastia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Annecy (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bastia's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.40
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.16
1.12
Annecy xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bastia and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Bastia and 1.12 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 11D 16L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Bastia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.30 PPG from 44 outings (15W 12D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.41 PPG, Annecy on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bastia's home form reads 10W 6D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.36 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Annecy in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 17W 11D 16L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Annecy away?
Bastia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.64 PPG; Annecy away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Bastia or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Annecy in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bastia's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
2
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Annecy have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Annecy see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 41%, Annecy 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bastia) and 59% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bastia's recent matches and 59% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bastia's recent games and 59% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Annecy tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Annecy in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and Annecy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Annecy finished level at 2-2 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.04 xG and Annecy 1.12 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Annecy attack 1.18 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 33% | Draw 29% | Annecy 37%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 43%, Annecy 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.41 PPG, Annecy 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.