Auxerre 4-1 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Concarneau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Auxerre and Concarneau meet at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2 (matchday 38). This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Auxerre at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Auxerre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Concarneau (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Concarneau's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Auxerre's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Concarneau's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Concarneau and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2023, ended Auxerre 2–1 Concarneau — a Auxerre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 54% versus Concarneau 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 49% | Concarneau 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.85 xG and Concarneau 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.261 / defence 0.753 | Concarneau attack 0.719 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Auxerre carry an above-average attack rating of 1.261 — their 1.85 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Concarneau's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.63. Auxerre have a tight defence (rating 0.753), which is pulling Concarneau's projected output down. Data: built from Auxerre's last 37 games and Concarneau's last 37.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 66% | Draw 23% | Concarneau 11%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.52 | Draw 4.41 | Concarneau 8.77. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (66%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Concarneau's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 40% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 38 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 66% | Draw 23% | Concarneau 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Auxerre 1.85 / Concarneau 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.261 / def 0.753 | Concarneau attack 0.719 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Concarneau xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Concarneau FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Concarneau kick off?
Auxerre vs Concarneau kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Auxerre 4 - 1 Concarneau.
Where is Auxerre vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Concarneau part of?
Auxerre vs Concarneau is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 38) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 66% chance of winning, Concarneau a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Auxerre and Concarneau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Auxerre vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Concarneau's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.72x) against Auxerre's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 37 games and Concarneau's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
66%
1.52
23%
4.41
11%
8.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.48
0.63
Concarneau xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
8.77
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
2%
55.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Concarneau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.63 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Concarneau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 20W 11D 6L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Concarneau's form line: 10W 8D 19L from 37 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Concarneau.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 2.11 PPG from their last 18 home games (11W 5D 2L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 5W 3D 10L from their last 18 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Concarneau
Current Season
Auxerre (Home) vs Concarneau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Current Season
Concarneau
Current Season
❓ Auxerre vs Concarneau Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 20W 11D 6L in their last 37 games (1.92 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 10W 8D 19L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Concarneau away?
Auxerre's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.11 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Concarneau in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Auxerre and Concarneau, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Concarneau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Concarneau?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 2, Concarneau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Concarneau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2024: Auxerre 4-1 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Concarneau?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Auxerre) and 22% (Concarneau) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Auxerre) and 33% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Concarneau in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Concarneau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Concarneau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Auxerre's recent matches and 22% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Concarneau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Auxerre's recent games and 33% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Concarneau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Auxerre's recent matches and 56% of Concarneau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Concarneau 4-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.85 xG and Concarneau 0.63 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.26 / defence 0.75 against Concarneau attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 66% | Draw 23% | Concarneau 11%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 49%, Concarneau 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Concarneau's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Concarneau (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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