Annecy 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rodez at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Rodez.

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Analysis & Preview

Rodez travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Annecy — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Annecy's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Annecy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Rodez have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Rodez have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.20 PPG versus Rodez's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Annecy, 3 for Rodez and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Nov 2024, ended Annecy 1–5 Rodez — a Rodez win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Annecy in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Rodez in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 50% versus Rodez 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 52% | Rodez 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Annecy surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.53 xG and Rodez 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.956 / defence 1.154 | Rodez attack 1.351 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.070. Rodez's defence rating of 1.226 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Rodez have an above-average attack rating of 1.351, which lifts their away xG to 1.67. Data: built from Annecy's last 64 games and Rodez's last 64.

Result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 23% | Rodez 41%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.83 | Draw 4.28 | Rodez 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Annecy 20% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 70% (last 10 away games).

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