Annecy 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Annecy at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Rodez.

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Analysis & Preview

Rodez travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Annecy — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Annecy's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Rodez have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Rodez have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 0.90 PPG versus Rodez's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Annecy's games and 80% of Rodez's (from Annecy's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Annecy, 1 for Rodez and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Annecy 0–3 Rodez — a Rodez win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Annecy in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Rodez in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 44% versus Rodez 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 47% | Rodez 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Annecy surrender their half-time lead 53% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.62 xG and Rodez 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.007 / defence 1.171 | Rodez attack 0.933 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. Rodez's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Annecy's last 56 games and Rodez's last 55.

Result probabilities: Annecy 46% | Draw 25% | Rodez 29%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.16 | Draw 4.02 | Rodez 3.46. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Rodez's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 60% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 80% (last 10 away games).

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