Concarneau 0-3 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Concarneau host Grenoble at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Concarneau have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Concarneau have posted 2W 2D 4L at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grenoble stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Concarneau) versus 1.50 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Concarneau in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Grenoble in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 39% versus Grenoble 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 39% | Grenoble 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.06 xG and Grenoble 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.916 / defence 1.321 | Grenoble attack 0.971 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. Data: 18 Concarneau games / 56 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 28% | Draw 27% | Grenoble 46%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Grenoble 2.17. Grenoble hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Concarneau 62% | Grenoble 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 28% | Draw 27% | Grenoble 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Concarneau 1.06 / Grenoble 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.916 / def 1.321 | Grenoble attack 0.971 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Grenoble xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Grenoble kick off?
Concarneau vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Grenoble?
Concarneau 0 - 3 Grenoble.
Where is Concarneau vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir.
What competition is Concarneau vs Grenoble part of?
Concarneau vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 28% chance of winning, Grenoble a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Concarneau and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Grenoble?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Concarneau and Grenoble in?
Concarneau (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Grenoble (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Concarneau's attack rating (0.92) and Grenoble's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Concarneau's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
28%
3.61
27%
3.74
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.51
1.44
Grenoble xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
7%
15.29
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.44 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, Concarneau have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 6W 4D 8L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 8W 7D 3L from 18 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Grenoble are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Concarneau.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Concarneau have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grenoble's season.
The Goals Picture
Concarneau are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.22 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 games (1.22 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 8W 7D 3L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Grenoble away?
Grenoble's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 1.00 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Concarneau or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Concarneau have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Grenoble in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Concarneau and Grenoble runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Concarneau
0
Draws
2
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Grenoble?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 0, Grenoble have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Grenoble 2-1 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 62%, Grenoble 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Concarneau) and 50% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Concarneau have failed to score in 38% of games; Grenoble in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Grenoble?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Concarneau's games and 62% of Grenoble's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Concarneau vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Concarneau's recent games and 50% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Concarneau and Grenoble tend to score early?
Concarneau have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Grenoble run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Concarneau 0-3 at Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.06 xG and Grenoble 1.44 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Concarneau fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Grenoble outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.92 / defence 1.32 against Grenoble attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 28% | Draw 27% | Grenoble 46%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 39%, Grenoble 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Grenoble arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.