Amiens 0-1 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 3 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens at Stade de la Licorne this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne away from home this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Amiens, 0.90 for Boulogne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 50% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 50% | Boulogne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.07 xG and Boulogne 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.764 / defence 0.978 | Boulogne attack 0.889 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.252. Amiens's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Amiens games / 8 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 30% | Boulogne 36%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Boulogne 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boulogne are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boulogne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 60% | Boulogne 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 3 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 30% | Boulogne 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Amiens 1.07 / Boulogne 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.764 / def 0.978 | Boulogne attack 0.889 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Boulogne xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Boulogne kick off?
Amiens vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 October 2025 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Boulogne?
Amiens 0 - 1 Boulogne.
Where is Amiens vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Boulogne part of?
Amiens vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 35% chance of winning, Boulogne a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Amiens and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Boulogne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Boulogne in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Boulogne (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Amiens's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.89x) against Amiens's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.39
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.15
1.09
Boulogne xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Amiens and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Amiens and 1.09 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 3D 4L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Boulogne sit at 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (3W 0D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Amiens against 0.90 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Amiens's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Boulogne have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.90 PPG overall record — Boulogne travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Boulogne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Boulogne away?
Boulogne's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 0.50 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Amiens
0
Draws
2
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Boulogne have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Boulogne 4-2 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Boulogne?
Boulogne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 25%, Boulogne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Amiens) and 50% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Amiens have failed to score in 75% of games; Boulogne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Amiens's recent matches and 50% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Amiens's recent games and 50% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Boulogne tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Boulogne edge out Amiens 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat Amiens 0-1 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.07 xG and Boulogne 1.09 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Amiens fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.76 / defence 0.98 against Boulogne attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 35% | Draw 30% | Boulogne 36%, with Boulogne to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 50%, Boulogne 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Boulogne's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.20 PPG, Boulogne 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.