Toulouse 2-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Auxerre meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Auxerre have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Toulouse, 1.60 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Toulouse have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Auxerre managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Toulouse and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 56% versus Auxerre 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Auxerre 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.86 xG and Auxerre 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.881 / defence 0.884 | Auxerre attack 0.982 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.373. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Toulouse games / 12 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 53% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 24%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Auxerre 4.17. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 50% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 53% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Toulouse 1.86 / Auxerre 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.881 / def 0.884 | Auxerre attack 0.982 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Auxerre xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Auxerre kick off?
Toulouse vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Toulouse 2 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Toulouse vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Auxerre part of?
Toulouse vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 53% chance of winning, Auxerre a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Toulouse and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Auxerre?
Record (4 meetings): Toulouse 3W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Auxerre in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.88x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.98x) against Toulouse's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.27
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.05
1.19
Auxerre xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
4%
26.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.19 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Toulouse come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 13D 18L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.91 PPG from 46 outings (26W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Toulouse's home form reads 5W 9D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.43 points per game from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.89 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 15W 13D 18L in their last 46 games (1.26 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 26W 10D 10L in their last 46 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.04 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Auxerre in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 6-0 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Toulouse
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Auxerre?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Auxerre?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Toulouse, 65% for Auxerre — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Toulouse) and 56% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Toulouse's games and 65% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Toulouse's matches and 56% of Auxerre's.
Do Toulouse and Auxerre tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Auxerre 2-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.86 xG and Auxerre 1.19 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Auxerre attack 0.98 / defence 1.40, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 53% | Draw 23% | Auxerre 24%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Auxerre 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Toulouse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.